You couldn’t have scripted it. With Brentford trashing Chelsea 4-1 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, those clubs at the bottom of the table hoping the Bees might be sucked into the relegation shake up have been dealt a brutal body blow. Not that we’re talking up that prospect on these pages – as the regular reader will know, top ten is still the target. Yet for Leeds United, Norwich City, Everton, Burnley, Watford and Newcastle (aka the bottom six) going down is still a very real prospect. The big question on everybody’s lips being – who survives?
I love this time of year. Everyone seems to be in possession of a supercomputer capable of predicting the results of the final games. Of seeing where each club may pick up points or where they may stumble.
We’re no different here and ahead of this evening’s game between Burnley and Everton at Turf Moor have run the numbers to see who will be playing Championship football next season. Now, the results are in.
First up, the good news for anybody anxious about Brentford. Looking at the current table, only one more point is needed to keep us safe. Whilst we haven’t run the full range of Bees’ games, those where we will encounter a bottom six club (Watford, Everton and Leeds United) have been included and they see another 7(seven ) points added to the total. A win in Watford, a draw at Everton and then final game defeat of Leeds United. The level to which they fall apart could even have a determining outcome on the final place in our bottom three.
Norwich City are, sadly, doomed. They are currently bottom on 18 points and will only pick up 3 more. A last game of the season defeat of Spurs, because, you know – go out in style. Too little, too late to aid the survival battle but enough to ruffle some feathers.
After that, though, things get interesting. Newcastle United will finish highest of the 6 teams scraping for survival. Another 8 points added to their current 31 takes them up to 39. They’ve lost three on the bounce at present but what looks on paper to be a relatively gentle run in (a three game sequence against the Champions League contenders aside) should see them pick up enough to guarantee another season of top flight football.
Watford are also home. Of the bottom 6, they’ll pick up the most points from their remaining fixtures. 13 points, including crucial defats of relegation rivals Leeds United, Burnley and Everton will see them end the season in 16th place on 35.
So we’ve three more clubs looking at two relegation spots. Everton, Burnley and Leeds United.
The Frank Lampard effect won’t be enough to save Everton. Their form is abysmal. Their run in too tough. The best they can hope for is another 7 points. Defeat this evening to Burnley will see the slide towards the EFL continue and they will finish the season in 19th with 32 points.
Meaning Leeds United and Burnley slug it out for that final spot. Incredibly, it’s going to end level. Burnley with 12 and Leeds picking up just 3 (home to Brighton in the penultimate game) will see both sides finish on 33 points. Goal difference will be key. As it stands, Leeds are on -33 and Burnely on -18, meaning that the Elland Road outfit seem to be on the way out of the top flight given that chasm will only grow wider. Their last game of the season taking place at Lionel Road and sure to be about as tense an affair as they come. Brentford pushing for the top ten. Leeds fighting to survive?
Could this pan out? Is it nothing more than fantasy football (our reader will know yours’ truly strengths when it comes to that)? Or should the green jacket just stay on for the next six weeks?
Who knows. I tell you one thing, if it did come downs to the Lionel Road denouement, just about he perfect season would achieve legendary status. Come on Brentford. Come on !
For anybody still taking note, below is where the points will be gained and dropped. For anyone else, here’s the Chelsea player review.
That final fixture breakdown…..
BURNLEY 12 points
06-04-22 Everton (H) W
10-04-22 Norwich (A) W
17-04-22 West Ham (A) L
21-04-22 Southampton (H) W
24-04-22 Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) L
30-04-22 Watford (A) L
07-05-22 Aston Villa (H) L
15-05-22 Tottenham (A) L
19-05-22 Aston Villa (A) L
22-05-22 Newcastle United 
NORWICH CITY 3 points
10-04-22 Burnley (H) L
16-04-22 Manchester United (A) L
23-04-22 Newcastle United (H) L
30-04-22 Aston Villa (A) L
07-05-22 West Ham (H) L
11-05-22 Leicester ( A) L
15-05-22 Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) L
22-05-22 Tottenham (H) W
WATFORD 13 points
09-04-22 Leeds (H) W
16-04-22 Brentford (H) L
23-04-22 Manchester City (A) L
30-04-22 Watford v Burnley (H) W
07-05-22 Crystal Palace (A) D
11-05-22 Everton (H) W
15-05-22 Leicester City (H) W
22-05-22 Chelsea (A) L
LEEDS UNITED 3 points
09-04-22 Watford (A) L
25-04-22 Crystal Palace (A) L
30-04-22 Manchester City (H) L
08-05-22 Arsenal (A) L
11-05-22 Chelsea (H) L
15-05-22 Brighton (H) W
22-05-22 Brentford (A) L
EVERTON 7 points
06-04-22 Burnley (A) L
09-04-22 Manchester United (H) L
20-04-22 Leicester (H) W
24-04-22 Liverpool (A) L
01-05-22 Chelsea (H) L
07-05-22 Leicester (A) L
11-05-22 Watford (A) L
15-05-22 Brentford (H) D
19-05-22 Crystal Palace (H) W
22-05-22 Arsenal (A) L
NEWCASTLE UNITED 8 points
08-04-22 Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) D
17-04-22 Leicester (H) W
20-04-22 Crystal Palace (H) D
23-04-22 Norwich ( A) W
30-04-22 Liverpool (H) L
08-05-22 Manchester City (A) L
16-05-22 Arsenal (H) L
22-05-22 Burnley (A) L
BrentfordFC 
Norwich have been doomed since before christmas not just playing in the Premiership, our owners do not want the club there. Happy to jog along not spending money, selling any promising talent and holding cooking demonstrations. As a club we have lost any identity we had, known for good football, Norwich are a very very poor shadow. Thats 25 years of Delia (bloody) Smith
Ha. Somebody hates Leeds
Small club bias against Leeds, hahaha
We’ll stay up but not sure Brentford will once Toney leaves in the summer
I think you’re (supercomputer) right.
The next two games for all the bottom ten clubs will clear the muddy water that is the chances of relegation.
Now (he says with huge relief), and optimistically, we should end 11th or 10th.
So long as injuries don’t become a factor and we don’t start with our super subs Sergi and Matthias! 😉😅
Though I say optimistically because if we’re mathematically safe I’d like to see Nathan Young Coombes (?), Peart Harris and a few other have run outs and get blooded in the Premier league. Though I suspect Thomas will will want to finish as high as possible.
Cherry on the cake would be to finish with a plus GD!
COY (super)B’s
Burnley and Watford going to be getting 12 points and 13points in the last 10 games when they’ve managed 21 & 22 all season?? Burnley haven’t scored in 4 league games. What’s your supercomputer an Amstrad??
Well, there you go. The first three points for Burnley already. The first result coming in. Just saying…
“Watford are also home” are you high? 6 wins from 30 but now they will have a 50% win rate? you’re either a 15 year old making things up on the spot or a deliberate troll.
You need another computer fella. That one is fecked
As a Watford fan I’d take that. The truth is we’re so fragile defensively i can’t see us staying up. Defending has been an issue since the cup final in 2019 but the Pozzo’s are more interested in signing the next wonderkid than seasoned defenders.
wow – this is a mental prediction and i’m assuming your “super computer” mentally handicapped – Leeds win against the odds at wolves shows that nothing is certain. Plenty more twists and turns to come.
‘fess up. After Chelsea, you know predictions are futile. You only did this to wind up Leeds supporters. Though it must be a slow news day if they chip in. Personally I suspect the bottom three as it stands really have their work cut out. Everton’s home form should see them through, and Phillips/Cooper returning should help Leeds. Neither Newcastle or us are safe, but we both look reasonably able to see it through.
And if you want to know exactly why you should trust my foresight, I would stress I expected us to lose to Chelsea 2-0.
I have no beef with any of the other club’s, but would like Watford to stay up as it is the only game I can walk to.
It surprises me that Mick thinks Brentford will miss Toney next season more than Leeds will miss Phillips.
An unforgettable day. I have rewatched the Chelsea game and the corresponding Match of the Day more times than I care to remember (and probably will again!).